MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x218595f2abcd629ccbe049d86fcffe4ebb3938234576bdceee01624ef6c1c0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 5,621$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 78c | 5,278$4,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 11c | 1,450$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 10c | 1,250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 996.51$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 13c | 918.03$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 902.31$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 9c | 731.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 8c | 649.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 15c | 625$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 20c | 286$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 24c | 269.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 21c | 143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 106$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 92.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 19c | 74.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 53.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 24c | 42.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 27c | 38.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 39c | 33.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 77c | 30.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 51c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.