NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07e3d54c8d22b976624befad90a8e320f88414ad1d2a3987c911faffb15cb0cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9b3…468cbacked Under | 49c | 2,033$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,841$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.29 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,315$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 44c | 1,111$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.84 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Over | 50c | 749.75$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 57c | 610$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.69 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 51c | 589.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.74 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 50c | 504$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Under | 49c | 502.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 47c | 423.7$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 392.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 41c | 346.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…1567backed Under | 51c | 295$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…0dcdbacked Over | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 282.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…86ccbacked Over | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…eb45backed Under | 48c | 234$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…8b95backed Over | 49c | 223.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 25c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 62c | 171.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 29c | 169.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 64c | 164.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 44c | 120.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 105.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 66c | 105.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 52c | 102.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 60c | 81.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Under | 42c | 80.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 26c | 74.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 74c | 74.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Under | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 53.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 50.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 43c | 47.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 53c | 46.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 43.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 38c | 42.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 50c | 38.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 42c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 39c | 27.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…21d8backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…9114backed Over | 51c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…274cbacked Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…fae6backed Over | 51c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ea…d493backed Over | 51c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…bc15backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. Maple LeafsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.