CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x081700c549d009c33a2694091f34015ee9a7c046735243fe8be3f72a67d538d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxoof Fluxo, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Keyd | 61c | 3,942$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.03 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Keyd | 63c | 1,021$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.78 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Fluxo | 38c | 860.24$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.55 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Fluxo | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Fluxo | 38c | 756.48$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.53 | 247 | 46.6%115 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Keyd | 62c | 645.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fluxo | 38c | 626.65$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.65 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…708fbacked Fluxo | 39c | 446.13$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.13 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Fluxo | 39c | 382$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.02 | 219 | 45.7%100 W · 119 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Fluxo | 40c | 362.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.73 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Fluxo | 38c | 359.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.61 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Fluxo | 37c | 355$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Fluxo | 38c | 334.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 328 | 44.8%147 W · 181 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Fluxo | 39c | 310.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Keyd | 63c | 279.61$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Fluxo | 45c | 222.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Fluxo | 39c | 197.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Fluxo | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Keyd | 61c | 180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 334 | 59%197 W · 137 L | +24.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Keyd | 64c | 124$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Fluxo | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fluxo | 37c | 96.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Keyd | 60c | 93.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo | 38c | 92.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed Keyd | 63c | 91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…bb76backed Fluxo | 37c | 84.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Keyd | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Keyd | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Fluxo | 36c | 45.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Keyd | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Keyd | 62c | 27.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Keyd | 59c | 27.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Keyd | 64c | 26.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Keyd | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 PlayoffsFluxo won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerFluxo won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 WinnerFluxo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.