CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec4ca1f94d8cd3ee3cb3d027ad6cd041d0cfeed5fa3c411427a1d081bfba4e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxoof Fluxo, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keyd | 14c | 3,361$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.3 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Keyd | 11c | 2,081$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.02 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed Keyd | 5c | 2,034$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…1c78backed Fluxo | 78c | 1,289$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Keyd | 37c | 973.96$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.48 | 752 | 45.5%342 W · 410 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0b…f901backed Fluxo | 52c | 921.38$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.26 | 359 | 53.2%191 W · 168 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Fluxo | 56c | 892.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.84 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Keyd | 34c | 784.4$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.96 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keyd | 47c | 722.95$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.06 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Keyd | 37c | 427.74$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.29 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fluxo | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Keyd | 35c | 276.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Keyd | 37c | 259.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Fluxo | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 858 | 51.6%443 W · 415 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed Fluxo | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keyd | 37c | 244.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Keyd | 22c | 242.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fluxo | 54c | 232.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo | 65c | 223.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Keyd | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Keyd | 48c | 118.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 260 | 48.5%126 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Keyd | 49c | 103.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Fluxo | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8d8backed Fluxo | 65c | 97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 406 | 66.3%269 W · 137 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Fluxo | 63c | 93.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442f…e80fbacked Keyd | 38c | 91.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Fluxo | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Keyd | 33c | 64.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 364 | 34.1%124 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fluxo | 63c | 61.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Keyd | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Fluxo | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Fluxo | 51c | 43.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Keyd | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Fluxo | 51c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…1068backed Fluxo | 55c | 36.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 323 | 61.6%199 W · 124 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Keyd | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 398 | 40.5%161 W · 237 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Fluxo | 55c | 23.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Fluxo | 66c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed Fluxo | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 247 | 56.7%140 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 PlayoffsFluxo won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerFluxo won
- Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)Fluxo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.