NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0829b8bc0a7984c9ade0649a5dfc737edd53dd31e38ad293e262d2ea36562127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 49,705$25,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,585.72 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 24,481$12,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,240.5 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 13,077$6,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,407.64 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 10,997$5,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,468.43 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Under | 49c | 10,722$5,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 3,666$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 2,540$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.58 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 380$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 158.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Under | 49c | 59.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 50c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…e0dfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 38.5this page
- Falcons vs. JetsJets won
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 39.5Over won
- Mason Taylor: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Jets won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.