NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd138586c5dbc7b150a4d1422e920de17f3b95cae7a1f0c2536d1ac290406939a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Falcons, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Falcons | 55c | 32,523$17,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,926.93 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 44c | 23,666$10,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,253.12 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 47c | 5,105$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.65 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Falcons | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jets | 45c | 4,209$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Falcons | 52c | 4,055$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.63 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Jets | 48c | 3,611$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.72 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jets | 48c | 2,020$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.41 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Jets | 48c | 1,828$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.39 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Falcons | 53c | 1,552$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.56 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets | 47c | 1,507$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.71 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jets | 43c | 1,402$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Falcons | 57c | 1,316$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jets | 46c | 993$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.22 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 46c | 932$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 48c | 885.66$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.29 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Falcons | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jets | 43c | 745.29$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.29 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…8152backed Falcons | 57c | 677.87$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jets | 46c | 558.2$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.43 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 55c | 500.6$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.62 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Falcons | 53c | 500$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Jets | 44c | 460$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jets | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Jets | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jets | 48c | 402.63$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Falcons | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 47c | 330.59$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Falcons | 56c | 318.18$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.18 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Jets | 45c | 279$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Jets | 46c | 217.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Jets | 46c | 215$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Falcons | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Falcons | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Jets | 44c | 192.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Falcons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Falcons | 56c | 149.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Falcons | 52c | 149$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Jets | 48c | 132$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Falcons | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Jets | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Jets | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Falcons | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Jets | 47c | 61.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…e5cabacked Falcons | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Jets | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Falcons | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Falcons | 52c | 34.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Jets | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Jets | 45c | 30.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Falcons | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Falcons | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Falcons | 56c | 28.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Jets | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Jets | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Jets | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Falcons | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Falcons | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Falcons | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)this page
- Falcons vs. JetsJets won
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 38.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 39.5Over won
- Mason Taylor: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.