NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd493342111a7bd17e9daeb810e1b05c8602b26135f59614696946510fafd1dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Falcons, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $295,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Falcons | 46c | 200,000$92,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,999.99 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 54c | 176,368$95,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,129.11 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Jets | 54c | 14,825$8,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,819.63 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 56c | 9,100$5,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,003.2 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Falcons | 45c | 7,500$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Jets | 55c | 7,272$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,272.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Jets | 55c | 6,836$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.07 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Falcons | 45c | 6,786$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.49 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jets | 57c | 5,971$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.09 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jets | 54c | 5,370$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.78 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Falcons | 44c | 4,385$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.4 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Jets | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 54c | 3,105$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.45 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Falcons | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Jets | 56c | 2,800$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Falcons | 45c | 2,443$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.67 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Jets | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Falcons | 43c | 1,850$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.6 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Falcons | 44c | 1,619$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.07 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Falcons | 43c | 1,122$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.46 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Falcons | 47c | 1,077$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.19 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Falcons | 46c | 999.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Falcons | 43c | 888$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Falcons | 45c | 678.15$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.17 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Jets | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Jets | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Jets | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Jets | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Jets | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Falcons | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Jets | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Falcons | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…8152backed Falcons | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Jets | 57c | 207.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jets | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jets | 63c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Jets | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Jets | 55c | 196.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Jets | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Falcons | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Jets | 56c | 140$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed Jets | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Falcons | 43c | 114.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4320backed Jets | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…a42bbacked Falcons | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Jets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Falcons | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Falcons | 46c | 99.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Jets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Falcons | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…c0ddbacked Falcons | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f2…45dfbacked Falcons | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Jets | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Jets | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…ab51backed Falcons | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2356…ddf5backed Falcons | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Jets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Jets | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)this page
- Falcons vs. JetsJets won
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 38.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 39.5Over won
- Mason Taylor: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.