NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf00b6be5a1170503735b10058bd55e2f625b293575c7e52ac74fa75385cf5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 13,731$6,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,342.18 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 11,286$6,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,037.93 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 1,724$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.56 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 49c | 1,144$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.11 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 444.82$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 246.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 163$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 48c | 76.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 68.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 18c | 68.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 28c | 46.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Under | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 39.5this page
- Falcons vs. JetsJets won
- Falcons vs. Jets: O/U 38.5Over won
- Mason Taylor: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Falcons (-2.5)Jets won
- Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.