Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x082dc2085c125bbb45a1eb1b26a6c6375c061f2a51fa5f7a2c66cf65ce3e86e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…ca27backed Yes | 67c | 328.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 279.52$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 55c | 209.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 45c | 152.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 65c | 59.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Yes | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 36c | 32.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked No | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.