Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dd4660740cb09a5701e85b320cedacf67b176f0c84193b8ac6b225963950006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 3,367$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.61 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 62c | 2,888$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 1,877$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.39 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 39c | 1,700$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 54c | 1,420$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.11 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 1,263$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 50c | 934.14$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.22 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 915.82$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.9 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 821.08$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.01 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…b5ccbacked Over | 60c | 656.82$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 70c | 613.07$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 59c | 600$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 584.89$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.86 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 33c | 572$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Over | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 33c | 491.19$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.95 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 39c | 353.39$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 33c | 330$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 62c | 324.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 12c | 316.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Over | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 41c | 271.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 42c | 218.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…de43backed Over | 61c | 185.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 57c | 175.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 38c | 171.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 50c | 156.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 54c | 146.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 49c | 136.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Under | 40c | 132.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 58c | 126.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 120.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…a36dbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Over | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 52c | 96.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Under | 51c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 77.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 52c | 77.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 71.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 54c | 58.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 36c | 54.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 40c | 49.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 40c | 44.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 35c | 39.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…a1b6backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Over | 58c | 34.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 49c | 34.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Under | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Over | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Over | 47c | 32.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Over | 48c | 31.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Under | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Under | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Over | 49c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 63c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…c0eebacked Under | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.