Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x487a215cd30d3cf3bae8b8849c437fd478025a4fc22f7d1ff9b5f0b8189e60cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 29c | 1,691$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.18 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…1316backed Under | 78c | 1,597$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,338$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.86 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 836.15$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.86 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 50c | 790.62$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 32c | 583.57$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.63 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 12c | 399.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 40c | 349.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 29c | 345.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 38c | 260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 39c | 230.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 61c | 214$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 209.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 39c | 192$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…634ebacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 148.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 143.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 51c | 138.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed Under | 77c | 126.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 102.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 101.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 40c | 42.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 60c | 38.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…2dccbacked Under | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 40c | 33.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.