Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0833704fed620beab00273c4a6a6e80eefe5ba094fb15515de449f7ac3b6375a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 66c | 1,950$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.8 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 1,410$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.51 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 32c | 822.3$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 61c | 499.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 74c | 460.93$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 425.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 77c | 382$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 77c | 258.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 77c | 129.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 45c | 124.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 111.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 62c | 83.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 69c | 71.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 49c | 61.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 22c | 60.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 73c | 59.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd4…fa95backed Over | 67c | 56.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 68c | 55.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Over | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 47c | 29.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…aaf3backed Over | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 73c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.