Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a60c68a873e01b225117d0e699f60f623c653df9fc0b06a6741870724d982c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 3,617$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.57 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 3,126$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.18 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 2,285$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.91 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 1,748$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.73 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Under | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 11c | 367.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 68c | 294.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 26c | 267.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 26c | 254.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 22c | 149.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 110.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 21c | 99.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Over | 27c | 97.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 22c | 90.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 20c | 68.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 63c | 65.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed Under | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 62c | 35.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3dc0backed Over | 38c | 35.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.