TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mexican Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Kovacevic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Kovacevic42c16,359$6,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,815.557,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tiafoe55c14,969$8,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,721.071,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Kovacevic46c14,220$6,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,489.0148851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tiafoe46c13,003$6,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,984.452,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Tiafoe51c6,179$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,998.336,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Tiafoe62c6,104$3,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.421,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Kovacevic46c4,608$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10141645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Tiafoe70c4,500$3,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.9815860.8%96 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd5…d06bbacked Kovacevic28c4,464$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2504723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kovacevic35c4,173$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.638,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kovacevic48c3,348$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.892,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Kovacevic35c3,008$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.534837.5%18 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Kovacevic35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kovacevic55c2,645$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.5881349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Tiafoe60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00044163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Kovacevic40c2,470$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Kovacevic47c2,194$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.0814343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kovacevic38c2,134$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.182,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Tiafoe27c2,009$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.1493055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Kovacevic58c1,747$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.9237854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Kovacevic29c1,600$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.9672452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Tiafoe62c1,106$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.731,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tiafoe53c1,005$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.9165647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Kovacevic38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3805565.5%36 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Tiafoe59c906.78$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.7842042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b4…150ebacked Kovacevic19c894.44$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.414947%70 W · 79 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Tiafoe70c850.12$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0443051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Kovacevic75c845.52$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.148262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Kovacevic12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Kovacevic13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb8…56ecbacked Tiafoe71c759.6$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0511256.3%63 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kovacevic29c741.58$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Kovacevic26c723.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.231,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Tiafoe72c716.61$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.692,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Tiafoe57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3015451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x120a…ed97backed Kovacevic2c698.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Kovacevic46c682.72$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4238739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kovacevic32c673.96$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.116,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kovacevic30c589.2$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.761,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Tiafoe68c588.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.241,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed Kovacevic30c562.26$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.682470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+34.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kovacevic40c559.76$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.313,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Tiafoe70c545.37$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.521,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Kovacevic23c527.09$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4625957.5%149 W · 110 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe11a…53ebbacked Tiafoe66c504.73$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.612969%20 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Tiafoe71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14512861.7%79 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Kovacevic30c480$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14419653.6%105 W · 91 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1e…21a1backed Tiafoe72c469.1$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.312765.4%83 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Tiafoe78c429.29$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4242358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbb…3b4bbacked Kovacevic75c420.57$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.431573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e7b…9716backed Tiafoe62c419.27$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.326134.4%21 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked Tiafoe73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.966259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Tiafoe58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16869249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Kovacevic78c351.43$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.173574.3%26 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Tiafoe72c348.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8413560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Tiafoe80c344.28$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2850364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Kovacevic54c341$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4823847.1%112 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Tiafoe64c340$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2258753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kovacevic30c338$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.421338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Tiafoe71c323.94$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Kovacevic49c309.81$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2947057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Kovacevic31c284.63$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2475262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Tiafoe71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6913439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Tiafoe59c264.54$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4619835.4%70 W · 128 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Tiafoe60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10069350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tiafoe69c230.5$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.464,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Tiafoe71c211.26$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.271,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Kovacevic69c196$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Tiafoe66c193.94$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9424852%129 W · 119 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33f…159cbacked Tiafoe39c190$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.34551.1%23 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Kovacevic44c189.8$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.044,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Tiafoe29c185.28$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.555731.6%18 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kovacevic66c183.42$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.184,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed Kovacevic20c175$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359938.4%38 W · 61 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Kovacevic30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4814…9a18backed Tiafoe65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda76…221fbacked Tiafoe66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Tiafoe42c150.42$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.613,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbf26…319bbacked Tiafoe65c146.15$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.153839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Tiafoe66c145.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4513052.3%68 W · 62 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Kovacevic30c144.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4842046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kovacevic18c144.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Kovacevic56c142$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3597046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Kovacevic14c139.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Kovacevic30c138.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.365554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Tiafoe73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9954348.1%261 W · 282 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tiafoe48c134.94$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.236,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Tiafoe75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3318659.7%111 W · 75 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Tiafoe62c131$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2113647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Tiafoe51c124.94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8518551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b79…722bbacked Kovacevic29c122.69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.581729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Tiafoe71c105.63$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6320542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Tiafoe65c102.14$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.362,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7585…25f0backed Kovacevic38c100.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.641154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Tiafoe71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2977967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Tiafoe65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3559348.9%290 W · 303 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Tiafoe56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Kovacevic35c97.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1328833.3%96 W · 192 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc990…80bbbacked Kovacevic24c96.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.172356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2439…3ed7backed Tiafoe62c95.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1612853.9%69 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.