UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0854336a71c3887834442491a82c3553febea23b28d97e5780cc02464a02a950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 592.08$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 48c | 528.35$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.84 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…22cbbacked Over | 52c | 484.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 51c | 475.98$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.98 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 53c | 469.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Under | 45c | 266.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…7ab2backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 26c | 186$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 181.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 53c | 165.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…5f13backed Over | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…1da8backed Under | 55c | 109.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Under | 57c | 87.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Under | 55c | 73.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…6ab9backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…01debacked Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 48c | 35.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…be98backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Card)Pereira won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.