Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08586ce20932f03130beda53a8d82fd4b9beb298b65ef769ca30ca2a859459c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 3,129$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.72 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…ab37backed Yes | 48c | 3,112$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed No | 70c | 2,718$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes | 21c | 2,237$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 50c | 1,132$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.7 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 474 | 47.9%227 W · 247 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 59c | 664.82$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.26 | 380 | 39.7%151 W · 229 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 313.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 720 | 50.1%361 W · 359 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 247$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 238 | 39.1%93 W · 145 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 50c | 235.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 446 | 54.7%244 W · 202 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…7249backed Yes | 50c | 195$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Yes | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Yes | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 49c | 162$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 368 | 27.4%101 W · 267 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 51c | 115.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…415abacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 74.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 550 | 38.9%214 W · 336 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…dc9fbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 49c | 50.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 675 | 53.8%363 W · 312 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 73c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan leading at halftime?this page
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
- Venezia FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.