Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0858a77fc6783d51fcd5cccce83958a8de3b27bba8f1cae632ea603a9967e1d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurkaczof Hurkacz, Ofner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Hurkacz | 63c | 9,083$5,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392.62 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ofner | 38c | 2,501$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.63 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Ofner | 37c | 2,217$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.95 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ofner | 36c | 1,540$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.61 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Ofner | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ofner | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.32 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Hurkacz | 63c | 796.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.19 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ofner | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Hurkacz | 63c | 587.73$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Ofner | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Hurkacz | 60c | 502.56$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ofner | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Ofner | 37c | 462.81$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Hurkacz | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Ofner | 37c | 240$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ofner | 37c | 236$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Ofner | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Hurkacz | 59c | 185.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Hurkacz | 61c | 185.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…6f0cbacked Hurkacz | 61c | 182.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Ofner | 41c | 164.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ofner | 37c | 124.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ofner | 39c | 106.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Ofner | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Ofner | 38c | 84.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ofner | 39c | 73.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Ofner | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Ofner | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Hurkacz | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 278 | 53.2%148 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Hurkacz | 61c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Hurkacz | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Ofner | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Hurkacz | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5)this page
- Hurkacz vs. Ofner: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs OfnerHurkacz won
- Set 3 Winner: Hurkacz vs OfnerHurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ofner (+2.5)Hurkacz won
- Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian OfnerHubert Hurkacz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.