Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Ofner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645ba399544b7a04ba9f1c15d81d0073604b3ba892b2844ead92d18eda102f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurkaczof Hurkacz, Ofner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ofner | 53c | 1,622$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.66 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hurkacz | 61c | 1,335$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.59 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hurkacz | 47c | 1,150$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.5 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Ofner | 62c | 384.08$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.13 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…e99bbacked Ofner | 36c | 270.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Hurkacz | 51c | 244.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hurkacz | 41c | 214.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Hurkacz | 43c | 186.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Ofner | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 582 | 48.3%281 W · 301 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Ofner | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…d4bfbacked Ofner | 38c | 102.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf004…4439backed Ofner | 45c | 99.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ofner | 57c | 98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Ofner | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ofner | 56c | 66.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Ofner | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ofner | 48c | 61.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ofner | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ofner | 35c | 40.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Hurkacz | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 303 | 46.5%141 W · 162 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Hurkacz | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…328fbacked Hurkacz | 54c | 30.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…5792backed Hurkacz | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Hurkacz | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Hurkacz | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Hurkacz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Ofnerthis page
- Hurkacz vs. Ofner: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Set 3 Winner: Hurkacz vs OfnerHurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5)Hurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ofner (+2.5)Hurkacz won
- Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian OfnerHubert Hurkacz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.