UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0869cbbf35795cc87b278452670c4dc05da1bcbbe3995d41219a37a577e3f70b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alvarezof Alvarez, Brener
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8d…94b2backed Brener | 1c | 2,996$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Alvarez | 73c | 139.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…64b7backed Alvarez | 63c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Brener | 37c | 85.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Brener | 28c | 81.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Brener | 25c | 47.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Brener | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…c49bbacked Alvarez | 59c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…7dccbacked Brener | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…f3ffbacked Alvarez | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…de39backed Alvarez | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brenerthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar NurmagomedovNurmagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy GodinezDern won
- UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson FigueiredoFigueiredo won
- UFC Fight Night: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal OleksiejczukMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael ChiesaChiesa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.