UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40dc8b419b5f81a5c032e40d93c7a097edc36161bf9e274a305e3c1d069d4052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nurmagomedovof Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Sandhagen | 21c | 5,744$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.93 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…fcf5backed Nurmagomedov | 79c | 5,704$4,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Nurmagomedov | 72c | 1,071$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.75 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…1c14backed Sandhagen | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Nurmagomedov | 76c | 379.46$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…c49bbacked Sandhagen | 24c | 286.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…caa4backed Sandhagen | 26c | 239.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Nurmagomedov | 73c | 217.03$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Nurmagomedov | 75c | 205.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Sandhagen | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Nurmagomedov | 79c | 159.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…6e8ebacked Sandhagen | 25c | 148.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Sandhagen | 28c | 145.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…fc5ebacked Nurmagomedov | 75c | 135.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…40dcbacked Nurmagomedov | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Nurmagomedov | 76c | 132.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 126.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Nurmagomedov | 74c | 117.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Sandhagen | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Sandhagen | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed Sandhagen | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…f8adbacked Sandhagen | 27c | 95.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Sandhagen | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…5e58backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 79.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Sandhagen | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Nurmagomedov | 71c | 71.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Nurmagomedov | 75c | 70.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Sandhagen | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…7425backed Sandhagen | 25c | 51.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Sandhagen | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked Nurmagomedov | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Sandhagen | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…3c57backed Nurmagomedov | 73c | 40.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…63c8backed Sandhagen | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…431fbacked Nurmagomedov | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…7bfcbacked Nurmagomedov | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…b469backed Nurmagomedov | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2234…f600backed Nurmagomedov | 76c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…a424backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…f3ffbacked Nurmagomedov | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bb…188fbacked Nurmagomedov | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedovthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Joel Alvarez vs. Elves BrenerAlvarez won
- UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy GodinezDern won
- UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson FigueiredoFigueiredo won
- UFC Fight Night: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal OleksiejczukMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael ChiesaChiesa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.