UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18da1d4623e1bb9372f5a64de30a7af6bece7a02d0e5c8efe1b6c0a9e0215a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiesaof Ferguson, Chiesa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Ferguson | 20c | 1,860$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.61 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Chiesa | 77c | 1,091$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Ferguson | 17c | 411.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…c49bbacked Chiesa | 79c | 200.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed Ferguson | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…e590backed Ferguson | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Chiesa | 75c | 93.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80a…c9f3backed Ferguson | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Ferguson | 19c | 77.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…7425backed Ferguson | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…187dbacked Ferguson | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Ferguson | 23c | 47.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e45…3e9bbacked Ferguson | 25c | 40.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar NurmagomedovNurmagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Joel Alvarez vs. Elves BrenerAlvarez won
- UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy GodinezDern won
- UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson FigueiredoFigueiredo won
- UFC Fight Night: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal OleksiejczukMagomedov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.