UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2151bf2f63994f79b0a6043ebc8a3be63e4c149178be5a3383e4922ba595c93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Figueiredoof Vera, Figueiredo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Vera | 40c | 609.18$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.77 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Figueiredo | 60c | 391.46$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Figueiredo | 57c | 342.03$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Figueiredo | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Figueiredo | 59c | 220.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Vera | 43c | 180.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Vera | 42c | 98.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Figueiredo | 58c | 95.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…fc5ebacked Figueiredo | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Vera | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredothis page
- UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar NurmagomedovNurmagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Joel Alvarez vs. Elves BrenerAlvarez won
- UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy GodinezDern won
- UFC Fight Night: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal OleksiejczukMagomedov won
- UFC Fight Night: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael ChiesaChiesa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.