Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0881c7b641fc5524c6d35a719a2d910ca5269ba7d049539301bb3111bede2483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 381.26$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 43c | 203.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 11c | 187.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 179.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 52c | 136.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 52c | 127.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 113.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 109.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 92.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 67.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 60c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…a499backed Yes | 70c | 62.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 48c | 61.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 53c | 61.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 58.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 57c | 56.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 57c | 53.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 76c | 52.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 44.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 43.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 41c | 41.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 56c | 39.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 39c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 56c | 27.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…945cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 25.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 44c | 23.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed Yes | 45c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…205bbacked Yes | 44c | 22.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.