Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd23ff79aefb05af2cf09e2c765c967d2bf82fa025ecb776228d383e1bb83c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 194.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 148.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 142.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 29c | 135.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 28c | 123.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 88.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 34c | 88.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 85.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 82.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 81.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 45.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa51e…db50backed Yes | 36c | 35.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 75c | 33.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 70c | 33.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 25.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 25.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.