Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08909ffae0b07d95a91638988447b3c8614594e50b2375d820384342519efa06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 299.4$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 202.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 116.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 30c | 108.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 31c | 105.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 74c | 100.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 89.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 83.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 83.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 13c | 78.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 70.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 58.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 57.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 50.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…38fabacked Yes | 32c | 47.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 42.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 39.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 32.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.