Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089bb3133ba703b389efe4bd7f875ca9762f671bf67a1bfc60577a9893161b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 14c | 1,265$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 25c | 915.87$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.76 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 71c | 367.93$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 275.4$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 18c | 222.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…d90dbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 27c | 123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 76c | 93.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 30c | 93.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 28c | 51.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 30c | 39.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 37.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Under | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 76c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.