Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8250e4984c84787f65262420c5e659cede47eab13486c3a5bfc04540211fba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 66c | 4,291$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.3 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 27c | 3,222$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.05 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 1,440$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.24 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 56c | 999.93$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.97 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 792.49$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.34 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 33c | 775.45$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 35c | 591$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.62 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 581.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 75c | 487$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 79c | 481$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 79c | 481$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 79c | 481$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 34c | 460.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Over | 76c | 405.37$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 34c | 311.68$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 305$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 34c | 295.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 64c | 236.22$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 36c | 226.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 79c | 221$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 67c | 194.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 179$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 33c | 142$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 22c | 131$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 34c | 90.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 34c | 90.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 44c | 82.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 66c | 76.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 65.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 66c | 65.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 34c | 45.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Over | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 67c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.