Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cacaf359cab93ecded28550eea372641ea95031637b7b90b64aed0d88d075de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 56c | 9,262$5,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.73 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 56c | 4,500$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 3,986$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.77 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 3,606$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 46c | 1,287$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 39c | 1,016$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.33 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 865.47$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.77 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 749.41$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.51 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 26c | 674.22$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 590.93$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.67 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 51c | 551.29$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.3 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 37c | 422.27$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 421.26$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.75 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 419.14$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 13c | 416.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 54c | 405.1$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 377.28$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 44c | 352.2$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 64c | 314.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 49c | 275.28$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Over | 44c | 229.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 203.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…70aebacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 193.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Over | 41c | 186.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 57c | 149.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Over | 35c | 109.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 44c | 99.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 58c | 94.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 79.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 73.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 66c | 68.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…eea0backed Over | 30c | 65.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 44c | 61.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 45c | 58.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 44c | 44.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…4fb2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked Under | 44c | 32.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 46c | 26.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 26.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 53c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.