Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c4e8d2c8a68ee56a4ded2b5944382d2cb798fedd52d7da557d5b896830b253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 973.08$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.08 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 599.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.05 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 563.12$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.38 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 408.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 335.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 34c | 284.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.52 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 251.29$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 74c | 210.73$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 78c | 198.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 186.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 184.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 178.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 68c | 169$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 156.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 21c | 144$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 43c | 106.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 106.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 86.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 80.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 72.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 29c | 68.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 23c | 62.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 59.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 57.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 54.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 52.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 25c | 52.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 28c | 51.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 31c | 50.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 44.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 42.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 39.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 34c | 34.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 33.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 27.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…e6c1backed Yes | 38c | 26.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 23.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 76c | 23.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 23.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 20.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 20.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 19.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…df89backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.