TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers38c1,184$454 inLost-$454.013,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c573.18$354 inWon+$219.092,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea8…25f9backed Los Angeles Dodgers38c552.63$210 inLost-$2101833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c406$257 inWon+$148.8311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c379.99$236 inWon+$144.489053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks69c243$168 inWon+$75.248,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Los Angeles Dodgers36c205.56$74 inLost-$7416543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5282…82fcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers32c150$48 inLost-$48944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c135.56$84 inWon+$51.075,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c119.05$75 inWon+$44.056857.4%39 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks68c96$65 inWon+$31.124,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c90.55$59 inWon+$31.691,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers38c78.95$30 inLost-$3029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c64.63$40 inWon+$24.5614057.9%81 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c57.77$38 inWon+$20.2230454.3%165 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7810…b011backed Los Angeles Dodgers38c52.63$20 inLost-$206149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks80c42.09$34 inWon+$8.425,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers33c34.21$11 inLost-$11.4570450.1%353 W · 351 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c28.6$18 inWon+$10.2912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c23$15 inWon+$8.196,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.