MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79ccbb6eafffa3e89326910be5d9ab544680d292c325dce4bb5fdfd9c80cc009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 5,624$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 4,245$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 49c | 3,308$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.04 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 3,138$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.26 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 49c | 2,137$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.72 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,723$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 49c | 991.08$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.45 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 871.39$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 785.89$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.25 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 745.83$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 704.83$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.38 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 604.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.59 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 52c | 547.5$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 51c | 532.81$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.53 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 48c | 463.85$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 458.55$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.44 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 188.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 32c | 164.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 53c | 83.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…f0e8backed Over | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 30c | 76.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 52c | 50.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 53c | 42.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…4fc0backed Over | 53c | 39.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Under | 49c | 38.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 37.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…aa62backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Under | 49c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 47c | 24.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…0b9fbacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 52c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…0712backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 79c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.