MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ca9ec534ca63f92f85f2508c3270a43624a3c396d55b90a4816bd883b6c493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 50c | 1,815$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.6 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 51c | 663.07$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.07 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 650$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 289.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 31c | 251.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 72c | 197$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 34c | 161.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 61c | 156.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…701bbacked Yes | 52c | 151.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 57c | 141.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 51c | 119.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 48c | 109.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 44c | 90.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 48c | 69.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 39c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 57c | 56.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 48c | 46.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 61c | 28.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 22.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Yes | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksthis page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.