Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f3a821e6bab99f5c054fd25d19bede33a6d490be7caab0f645a1076077f61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 3,723$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Aurora | 40c | 3,579$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.22 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Aurora | 51c | 2,388$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 1,367$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.79 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 1,150$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora | 25c | 999.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.96 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked PARIVISION | 75c | 851.95$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.96 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed PARIVISION | 50c | 535.9$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.57 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 30c | 535.43$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.05 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked PARIVISION | 69c | 249.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 239.22$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Aurora | 45c | 220$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d59…ee16backed PARIVISION | 75c | 213.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked PARIVISION | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Aurora | 34c | 148.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 39c | 142$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora | 41c | 122.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 29c | 109.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Aurora | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed PARIVISION | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Aurora | 55c | 70.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…7d24backed PARIVISION | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 43c | 41.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked PARIVISION | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked PARIVISION | 67c | 21.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…9ae1backed PARIVISION | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed PARIVISION | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed PARIVISION | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.