MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f617cac54cbbed99f39df71efb87d9a4d90259b0dd3115a559c040bfdeabf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 17,509$6,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,647.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 14,283$8,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,389.76 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…acefbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 7,078$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 5,200$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.99 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 4,951$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.35 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 4,940$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 3,334$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b9e3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 2,385$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.6 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,719$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.03 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 1,650$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,617$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 1,318$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 1,284$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 1,157$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.45 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,024$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 599.6$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 547.94$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 488.71$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 310.93$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.17 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 305.93$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 288$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 235.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 215.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…6831backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 171.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 163.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 156.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 149.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 113.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 73.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 71.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 70.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 34.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 30.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 26.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 25.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 22.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.