Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x095212acd3c336d3a749fd7ed8a8c37815db1841642e0134518fcfb40ad9ad10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 2c | 5,141$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 1,002$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 15c | 409.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 291.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 255.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 236.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 58c | 184.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 182.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 170.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 148.32$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 147.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 146.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 66c | 115.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 109$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 70c | 103.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 59c | 98.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 94.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 49c | 87.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 55c | 82.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 49c | 77.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 54c | 70.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 68.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 67.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 31c | 66.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 61.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 61.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 60.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 48c | 59.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 59.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 41c | 58.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 39c | 49.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 49.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 43.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 40.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 39.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 43c | 35.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 34.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 34.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 76c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 70c | 33.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 33.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 64c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed Yes | 39c | 30.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 29.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 63c | 28.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 28.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…8297backed Yes | 61c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 42c | 26.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 73c | 26.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 45c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 17.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 17.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked No | 58c | 17.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 64c | 16.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 15.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.