Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0962fb9e440b1efc8343616c3a9f7dc48e27db2c5553b14e0594f3859aec632f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 15c | 190$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 183.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 49c | 179.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 159.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 52c | 117$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 102.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 95.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 90.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 60c | 79.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 47c | 60.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 57.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 56.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 48.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 41.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 39.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…44eebacked Yes | 44c | 38.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 36.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 35.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 34.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 33.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 33.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 32.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 31.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 31.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 30.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…bd96backed Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 28.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 54c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 23.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab8…a59fbacked Yes | 52c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 67c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 17.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.