Dota2 · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099c55a038ce5d84ffe42ddf46f27c1d132694922bdd19b91d7a9c5156abfd70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Over | 48c | 1,951$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.61 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 53c | 1,037$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.53 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Over | 47c | 825.74$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.32 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 52c | 770.76$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.97 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Under | 52c | 618.65$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.22 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d06…11fbbacked Over | 47c | 435.25$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 52c | 284$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 160$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…f531backed Under | 53c | 90.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…66bfbacked Over | 45c | 74.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Under | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 53c | 39.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 54c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…3e39backed Under | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Under | 53c | 24.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?this page
- Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group StageVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerHULIGANI won
- Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)HULIGANI won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.