TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof HULIGANI, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$378,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Vici Gaming70c35,926$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,926.461,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked HULIGANI29c23,338$6,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,879.2723435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked HULIGANI11c22,653$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.65731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed HULIGANI30c15,172$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,488.799736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24be…ad1abacked Vici Gaming75c13,341$10,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,281.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Vici Gaming70c12,700$8,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.9910540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Vici Gaming70c9,855$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.711,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x332b…af19backed Vici Gaming75c7,125$5,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.351250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked HULIGANI29c4,841$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.0335850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed HULIGANI25c4,529$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.1318950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed HULIGANI42c4,267$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80024255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed HULIGANI30c4,054$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.225149%25 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Vici Gaming71c4,012$2,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.0553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfae1…fdc1backed Vici Gaming77c3,520$2,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.342128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-45.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked HULIGANI33c3,500$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.9925446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Vici Gaming66c3,379$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.9410045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed HULIGANI31c3,160$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.313348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed HULIGANI21c2,647$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.1450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed HULIGANI25c2,584$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.8933453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked HULIGANI33c2,582$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.039643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Vici Gaming62c2,419$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.3550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed Vici Gaming51c2,194$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3110458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed HULIGANI29c2,164$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.5521146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e12…e867backed HULIGANI30c2,162$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.16633.3%22 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked HULIGANI31c2,121$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.2889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Vici Gaming76c1,905$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1813943.9%61 W · 78 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed HULIGANI29c1,900$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5511915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-64.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked HULIGANI30c1,774$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.511,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed HULIGANI31c1,763$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.5358744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Vici Gaming72c1,702$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.2219460.3%117 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked HULIGANI4c1,600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed HULIGANI4c1,600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa5…cd80backed HULIGANI32c1,580$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.243256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed HULIGANI26c1,541$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6110256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed HULIGANI32c1,518$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.225438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Vici Gaming79c1,500$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31051364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Vici Gaming69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed HULIGANI28c1,490$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.1213941.7%58 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked HULIGANI20c1,417$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.851,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x818b…c5ebbacked Vici Gaming71c1,400$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.59658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedfc…b7b1backed Vici Gaming73c1,365$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.548348.2%40 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Vici Gaming72c1,253$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.9917648.3%85 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x994d…a298backed HULIGANI40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Vici Gaming67c1,244$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.6231055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Vici Gaming67c1,230$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.7842639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d5a…c59ebacked HULIGANI1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed HULIGANI30c1,200$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.73537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0587…c40bbacked HULIGANI34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008547.1%40 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked HULIGANI28c1,176$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.5189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked HULIGANI41c1,072$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.777142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…e2c4backed HULIGANI34c1,019$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.624141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed HULIGANI27c1,002$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed HULIGANI10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.929122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked HULIGANI40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked HULIGANI34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34024942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…186cbacked Vici Gaming72c985.26$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.167169%49 W · 22 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x60f1…dc7cbacked Vici Gaming73c899.99$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked HULIGANI31c879.99$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.810245.1%46 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed Vici Gaming61c836.76$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.345152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0c…5f05backed HULIGANI33c808.47$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.132245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Vici Gaming46c800.46$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2557449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked HULIGANI34c788.54$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.72828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b4…4e24backed Vici Gaming70c776.99$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.326764.2%43 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb8f…4a0bbacked HULIGANI31c760$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.65444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed HULIGANI30c731.73$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.582540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed HULIGANI49c711.63$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35047650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed HULIGANI29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20365441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed HULIGANI2c653.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.08130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed HULIGANI21c622.22$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5735758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked HULIGANI37c620.66$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.141,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed HULIGANI27c604.72$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2317040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed HULIGANI3c604.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.333323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed HULIGANI36c602$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9310743.9%47 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Vici Gaming45c588.82$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.8589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed HULIGANI30c568.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.77735.1%27 W · 50 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fda…330cbacked Vici Gaming71c555$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.954740.4%19 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked HULIGANI28c533.14$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked HULIGANI61c527$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4713258.3%77 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Vici Gaming65c516.18$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.095437%20 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked HULIGANI29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14526846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked HULIGANI29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14511142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabc3…f82dbacked HULIGANI22c500$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.915373.6%39 W · 14 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked HULIGANI30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked HULIGANI24c499.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11821941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Vici Gaming72c475$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0212335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Vici Gaming76c468.12$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2756343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3feb…7dfbbacked HULIGANI11c444$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.747931.6%25 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Vici Gaming74c440$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.789744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked HULIGANI17c439.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7531953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Vici Gaming67c434.61$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4258356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed HULIGANI30c428.56$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.578740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed HULIGANI28c427.87$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9847748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked HULIGANI27c419.14$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Vici Gaming74c406.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4519849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Vici Gaming69c380$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.866848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde4…6453backed HULIGANI59c337.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005250%26 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc182…1339backed HULIGANI27c334.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9028846.5%134 W · 154 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…637abacked HULIGANI27c325.14$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.125149%25 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vici Gaming80c311.36$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.091,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…1861backed HULIGANI39c310.78$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.