TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
HULIGANIof HULIGANI, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Vici Gaming59c51,160$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed HULIGANI48c30,132$14,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,780.3145139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Vici Gaming46c16,265$7,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,430.351,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Vici Gaming75c14,292$10,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6811,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7993…cf5abacked Vici Gaming77c14,022$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,800.422962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked Vici Gaming17c12,277$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.81731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Vici Gaming14c11,454$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.082828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked HULIGANI48c11,000$5,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,724.9825446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked HULIGANI24c10,166$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,725.9236041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked HULIGANI25c8,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00010045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked HULIGANI19c7,920$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,415.155834.5%20 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked HULIGANI46c5,917$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.1450850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61a…708bbacked HULIGANI58c5,539$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.764151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked HULIGANI27c4,670$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.911,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed HULIGANI34c4,405$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.9318950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed HULIGANI25c4,385$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.636241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vici Gaming77c3,751$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.2680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Vici Gaming75c3,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2509556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Vici Gaming74c2,566$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.3217648.3%85 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x628f…b212backed HULIGANI66c2,561$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.912958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+2,654.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked HULIGANI26c2,444$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.0196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed HULIGANI80c2,407$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.7333453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed HULIGANI45c2,403$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.7117249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed HULIGANI35c2,293$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.1724255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed HULIGANI24c2,222$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.7251140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed HULIGANI31c2,143$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.410458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked HULIGANI24c2,111$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.7350749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked HULIGANI28c2,022$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.2789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed HULIGANI30c2,004$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.7868649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed Vici Gaming49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.98834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed HULIGANI74c1,947$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.68658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed HULIGANI34c1,903$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.3553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked HULIGANI68c1,781$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.9389238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Vici Gaming1c1,752$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.193323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Vici Gaming66c1,582$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.0316547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked HULIGANI25c1,518$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.591,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed HULIGANI25c1,500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.631,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed HULIGANI41c1,444$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.4410256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Vici Gaming52c1,414$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9957449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed HULIGANI26c1,341$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.1917040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked HULIGANI71c1,331$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.4825143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed HULIGANI61c1,321$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.4693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Vici Gaming72c1,297$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.8219460.3%117 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed HULIGANI48c1,283$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.322540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Vici Gaming71c1,244$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.3312335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed HULIGANI22c1,153$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.6672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Vici Gaming79c1,081$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.5461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d6…7f51backed Vici Gaming3c1,049$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275947.5%28 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked HULIGANI26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74077256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Vici Gaming80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Vici Gaming65c1,000$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65351364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed HULIGANI25c1,000$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7551,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked HULIGANI28c999.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9931936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Vici Gaming80c999.98$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9854058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Vici Gaming53c999.98$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.999122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Vici Gaming50c921.99$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46128347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed HULIGANI25c911$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.2550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Vici Gaming31c900$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2756050%30 W · 30 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Vici Gaming63c900$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Vici Gaming60c894.14$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2342639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked HULIGANI50c863.82$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.8119456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Vici Gaming65c781.82$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.1879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed Vici Gaming79c774.29$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7510453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed Vici Gaming67c761.83$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.435152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed HULIGANI21c741.98$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.4320233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked HULIGANI20c725.96$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.771250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb0c…5f05backed HULIGANI39c700$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4302245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed Vici Gaming24c699.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16610840.7%44 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked HULIGANI22c685.57$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.981,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed HULIGANI27c645.51$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.1929243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Vici Gaming79c635.15$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed HULIGANI47c630$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.969744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed HULIGANI49c613.92$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7112246.7%57 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Vici Gaming72c601.88$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7950832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked HULIGANI21c598.87$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.1123435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked HULIGANI52c547.41$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.518254.9%45 W · 37 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HULIGANI66c540.62$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.591,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Vici Gaming68c530.2$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.3118844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked HULIGANI25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37526846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked HULIGANI26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37011142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bd…3338backed Vici Gaming20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked HULIGANI22c499.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.9913258.3%77 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Vici Gaming77c485.04$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.8547748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked HULIGANI27c453.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1735850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Vici Gaming38c432.39$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.166545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed HULIGANI29c422.49$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.978740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1973…9fb5backed HULIGANI23c417$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.086457.8%37 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked HULIGANI73c408.82$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1656945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Vici Gaming51c392.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed HULIGANI74c374.44$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1658943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed Vici Gaming72c365.99$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.522853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9098…c796backed Vici Gaming45c351.96$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked HULIGANI24c340.01$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.881,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Vici Gaming71c332.21$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.8732548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Vici Gaming76c328.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked Vici Gaming61c327.73$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6315368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b2f…318bbacked Vici Gaming21c306.52$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.332755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed HULIGANI28c300.17$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.0718247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked HULIGANI26c300$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22291356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4652…6343backed Vici Gaming44c300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1333938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.