Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09a457ea201862ecb776344550dc7ec1730f299699b180db96652938decfbd30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 833.2$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 77c | 422.49$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 414.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 200.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 75c | 166.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 166$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 23c | 73.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 26c | 62.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 60.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 60.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 57.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 23c | 47.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed No | 75c | 46.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 43.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 42.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 80c | 42.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 40.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 30c | 39.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.