MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09a8ac030b5a81d5a6489a7f89d2604ed5e05dc84617dc29acbf5935d50cf6ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 10,720$6,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,073.6 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 6,630$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 6,396$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.48 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 74c | 5,811$4,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 62c | 1,195$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…52d1backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 1,193$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 902.89$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 735.56$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 691.34$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 61c | 481$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.59 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 286.24$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 265$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 259.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 62c | 202.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Houston Astros | 61c | 73.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…6134backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 63.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 50.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 43.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 74c | 27.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Houston Astros | 61c | 21.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Houston Astros | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Houston Astros | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 76c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Houston Astros | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.