MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6631241b4231c993454b7b7a69152ef7b07f687ea249af62a171dc2f48e6af3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 21,035$10,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,527.72 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 50c | 20,243$10,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,121.71 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,600$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 50c | 1,460$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 1,273$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.43 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 997.29$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.65 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 49c | 966$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.66 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 513.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 50c | 483.1$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.55 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 50c | 451.36$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 431.16$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 346.65$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 238.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 73c | 226.37$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 199.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 51c | 192$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 161.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 49c | 99.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 50c | 84.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 80.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 65.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Under | 50c | 60.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 50c | 29.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 48c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.