Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09cf84abd0ac3d650025abe8a06b30c76e53f1e158a49ddfb7cfd35c1a447a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 459.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 182.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 165$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 163$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 114$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 99.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 74.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 70.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 69.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 60c | 60.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 30c | 55.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 49.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 51c | 48.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 45.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 41.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 34c | 40.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 30c | 37.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 42c | 30.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…8990backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +82%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.