Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81e42db26cc34abfcb8c3c2efdc0c1900494a6eeea407acdf3d6219b5cbc809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 416.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 16c | 349.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 252.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 238.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 18c | 201.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 190.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 180.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 170.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 166.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 43c | 161.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 152.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 11c | 136.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 135.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 135.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 132.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 13c | 120.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 115.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 68c | 104.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 103.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 53c | 99.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 99.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 95.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 93.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 90.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 82.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 82.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 61.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 56.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 76c | 50.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 44.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 56c | 41.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 55c | 35.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 54c | 35.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 74c | 33.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 71c | 27.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 27.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 53c | 26.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 26.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 53c | 23.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 62c | 18.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.