MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d4ddc118772c4277fc96133a116568c9a8a64de8795809012e31c9a7259480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 4,451$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 4,381$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,350$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.5 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 1,030$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.3 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,020$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 930.07$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.94 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 871.28$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 795.63$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.07 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 644.3$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.35 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 631.24$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 344.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 284.15$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 267.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 196$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 189.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 184.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 171.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 113$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 109$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 101.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 95.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 81.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 79.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 45.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 41.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 40.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 35.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 33.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 31.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 27.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.