MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a4559711c112a6c82abd9b3f1b9ecceac3b3ec961deefd5414772ebc6ef63f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 6c | 15,201$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.84 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 4,899$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 52c | 4,199$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.56 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 66c | 1,696$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.75 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 49c | 1,659$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.18 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 1,174$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.61 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9c…c8cfbacked Under | 78c | 1,100$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 60c | 1,007$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.14 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 51c | 909.2$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.69 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 746.68$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.87 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 651.81$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 650.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 585.17$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.29 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 560$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 49c | 455$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 422.27$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 49c | 406.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 53c | 377$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 291.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 252.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 232.11$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…3e7ebacked Over | 54c | 212.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…09cfbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 183.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 27c | 182.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Under | 48c | 180.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 48c | 155.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 152.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 37c | 136.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 122.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 40c | 114.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…629dbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 98.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 89.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 60.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 41c | 53.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…4543backed Under | 67c | 51.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 40.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Under | 67c | 37.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 42c | 29.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…352ebacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 53c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.