MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09dc6843d750761ee128391eef4dcfe253a37b8f9b529210821c06fc0300000b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Boston Red Sox | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 4,327$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.64 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 4,020$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.58 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…42c5backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 4,000$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 3,973$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 3,622$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 2,170$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.47 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 840.07$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.61 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 386.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 244$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Boston Red Sox | 17c | 220.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 199.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 167.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 131$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 124.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 39.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 28.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.