Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Lesa Men: Daniele Rapagnetta vs Manuel Mazza
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e34a3b7bc7b59d07f99ed4917e9e9eaf157945ebc39208b60c29658adb5839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniele Rapagnettaof Daniele Rapagnetta, Manuel Mazza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb833…3ff7backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 79c | 2,151$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Manuel Mazza | 37c | 2,087$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781 | 106 | 38.7%41 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…8dd9backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 49c | 1,648$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.99 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 76c | 1,150$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.99 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manuel Mazza | 24c | 977$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.01 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Manuel Mazza | 38c | 696.98$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Manuel Mazza | 47c | 578.39$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Manuel Mazza | 34c | 273.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Manuel Mazza | 24c | 245.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c2…2d18backed Manuel Mazza | 24c | 149.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Manuel Mazza | 25c | 142.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Manuel Mazza | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Manuel Mazza | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Manuel Mazza | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 52c | 96.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Manuel Mazza | 61c | 81.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 72c | 81.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Manuel Mazza | 24c | 69.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 74c | 66.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Manuel Mazza | 27c | 64.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Manuel Mazza | 27c | 61.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Manuel Mazza | 39c | 50.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…cd83backed Manuel Mazza | 37c | 31.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 445 | 52.8%235 W · 210 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 70c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 78c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.