Tennis · resolved market
ITF Monastir: Togan Tokac vs Arin Pallegar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e67d542b41e1eb396bf96d3e3bf7522e47a6fcf2ca0bbde8b40bdc4ea4acae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Togan Tokacof Togan Tokac, Arin Pallegar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arin Pallegar | 28c | 2,423$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.87 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Togan Tokac | 66c | 1,996$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.65 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arin Pallegar | 45c | 886.56$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.26 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arin Pallegar | 49c | 628.49$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.76 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Togan Tokac | 47c | 595.29$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.09 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Togan Tokac | 65c | 429.23$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Togan Tokac | 43c | 257.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Togan Tokac | 59c | 222$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Arin Pallegar | 10c | 179$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Arin Pallegar | 13c | 111.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Togan Tokac | 66c | 82.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Togan Tokac | 40c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Togan Tokac | 50c | 64.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Arin Pallegar | 37c | 61.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Togan Tokac | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Togan Tokac | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Togan Tokac | 67c | 53.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Arin Pallegar | 53c | 51.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…6461backed Togan Tokac | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Togan Tokac | 72c | 48.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Arin Pallegar | 28c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Togan Tokac | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arin Pallegar | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Togan Tokac | 66c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Togan Tokac | 66c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Togan Tokac | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.