Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09ed73fd6a514580a550801f6cc775dee1c1c611c0b910ee8f847fccae1aeab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 1c | 1,177$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 56c | 886.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.23 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 50c | 771.88$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.45 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 500$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 434.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 348.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 60c | 333.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 20c | 324.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 278.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 255.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 183.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 55c | 159.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 71c | 155.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 37c | 143.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 138.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 137.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 52c | 132.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 26c | 125.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 39c | 124.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 42c | 112$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 104.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 79c | 93.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 28c | 90.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 80c | 85.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 65c | 76.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 43c | 75.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 60c | 75.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 15c | 74.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 61c | 68.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 50c | 67.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 65.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 54c | 64.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 72c | 64.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 36c | 61.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 33c | 54.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 44.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 68c | 44.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 74c | 43.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…a057backed Yes | 64c | 42.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…457ebacked No | 60c | 41.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 61c | 41.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 38c | 40.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 39.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 39.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 57c | 37.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 36.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…e9bfbacked Yes | 35c | 32.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…5a68backed No | 70c | 32.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 30.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 40c | 30.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 55c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 61c | 21.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…6dbebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 63c | 18.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.